Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..] Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..]

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To: MangoBoy who wrote (686)	9/28/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (2) of 1860

gotta run, but this fwiw: as previously clarified, WCII has been recently guiding down revenue numbers and ebitda losses (greater losses) for 2000. many analysts felt caught in the headlights of Jack Grubman's new model (which did NOT change the WCII target price or rating) and Riyad Said's call this morning. ALL other analysts have now taken (or will soon need to take) their 2000 numbers down as well. on the positive, Q3 should be very strong, with several events expected soon as well (Office.com for instance). Revenues for Q3 should be above $120MM and margin improvement of at LEAST 6-7% (over Q2's 24%). also, if WCOM-FON goes through (with likely selling of FON and retention of PCS), Bill Rouhana has said (at the recent Furman Selz conference) that the bidding for WCII would likely be so strong that he would have to "hit the bid". further negative is that today's lowering of 2000s numbers was perceived by the street (especially buyside) as negative for the DCFs currently in place. So not only are 2000's numbers coming down, but likely for ALL years 2000-2008, as well as a possible increase in DCF discounting. Post close buyside rumblings are that we head lower tomorrow, with some analysts feeling that if we see mid to lower 30s, backing up the truck might be in order. For right or not, the number lowering is complicated by voiced concerns of credibility going forward. The picture is complex - i sold some long calls and stock today, buying some back towrd the close. A LOT of analysts will be calling this overdone tomorrow. The question is, will there be significant buyers in the near term. Still long (though less so) and watching for strong signs of street negative sentiment reversal.

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