From the Global Futures Bulletin: One of many reminders of why the work of companies such as ECD is important:
FOCUS ON MATERIALS, ENERGY, WASTE AND LAND
If the question of whether it is possible to have economic growth
without an increase in throughput of materials and energy remains
contentious and irresolvable, the whole question could be left aside in
favor of focusing on consumption levels per se - ie whether or not the
per capita levels are increasing in terms of
- consumption of materials
- consumption of energy
- production of wastes
- area of land co-opted
and whether all these levels can be
- stabilised
- reduced and re-stabilised at sustainable levels
Per capita consumption of energy continues to rise on average in the
OECD.
Energy consumption per capita/an, kg oil equivalent.
Source: World Bank [1]
1973 1983 1993
Australia 4320 4668 5316
Austria 2894 2865 3277
Belgium 4766 4120 4989
Canada 6827 7122 7821
Denmark 3938 3271 3861
Finland 4572 4893 5635
France 3406 3397 4031
Germany 4319 4304 4170
Iceland 4291 4289 5025
Italy 2382 2333 2697
Japan 2884 2809 3642
Luxembourg 12776 7764 9879
Netherlands 4660 3978 4533
New Zealand 2711 3035 4299
Norway 3839 4536 5096
Spain 1504 1818 2373
Sweden 4838 4983 5385
Switzerland 3139 3284 3491
UK 3946 3417 3718
US 8146 7175 7918
up up Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Norway,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland
down up (higher) Austria, Belgium, France, Iceland, Italy, Japan,
down up (lower) Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, UK, US
down down Germany
Land use
Of the 13 billion hectares of the Earth's land surface area, at least 8.8
billion have been expropriated by humans [2].
Between 70%-95% of the Earth's species are contained in the world's
disappearing tropical forests [3]. The area of tropical forest
remaining is 1.4b ha [4] (another estimate suggests 2.0b ha compared
to 2.9b in 1800 [5] ) and disappearing at ~10m ha/an.
An extra 18.8m ha/an of cropland is required each year to feed the
extra 94m/an population increase plus the increasing per capita food
consumption [6].
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED) endorsed the goal that all countries protect at least 12% of
their land area for natural habitat. The percentage of total land area
which is currently protected is estimated at around 2.6% [7]. In one
dismal example of human co-option of land, in the period 1978-1987
Paraguay converted 97.2% of its remaining natural habitat to
cropland and pastureland [8].
Even if we measure consumption rates of energy and materials, some
analysts will argue that it is possible to increase per capita
consumption of energy and materials without increasing the impact
on the environment or diminishing the natural capital base, by
switching to new processes and technologies; for example:
- if recycling triples the useful life of a material, one might expect
that people could consume three times the amount of that material
without increasing environmental impact (or almost, after making
allowances for energy etc used in recycling).
- if an industry, which discharges nutrients into waterways degrading
the aquatic ecosystems, begins to redirect the nutrient discharge to
cropland (industrial ecology), production may be increased somewhat
with no new net impact on the environment.
- switching to renewable energy sources might allow greater per
capita consumption of energy compared to energy use based on fossil
fuels for a given level of environmental impact.
- if the longevity and toxicity of wastes are reduced, this may allow
for an increase in waste production (to match a given level of net
environmental impact).
- improved environmental planning and management of co-opted
land may allow for reductions in habitat reserves (eg we may need to
reduce co-opted land area by only 25% rather than say a hypothetical
50% reduction now needed to maintain current levels of biodiversity).
While these arguments may have some merit and need to be explored
more fully, indicators of per capita materials and energy
consumption, as well as per capita land use and waste production,
can provide a good picture of which direction we are heading.
(Ascertaining sustainable levels is also a necessary but far more
complex task). |
