Here's my math on the Taiwan earthquake...
I am assuming that 100% of CUBE's production comes from TSM (so that my calculations are a worst-case scenario), and I assume that 50% of CUBE's revenues go to TSM for supplying chips (again, this is a high estimate, but this also produdes a worst case scenario for us investors.)
From TSM's web page...
August TSM sales: NT7,012,000,000
extrapolating into Q4, Q4 sales are NT 7 Billion * 3 = NT 21 Billion... assume additional 4Billion for 4th quarter in sales, which is the busiest quarter.
So, TSM Q4 sales = 25Billion NT dollars...
1NT dollar = 0.03 American Dollars btw
TSM will lose NT 2.8 (close enough to 3B) Billion loss in sales (from their web page) during Q4 from the Quake
3Billion loss = 1/8th of TSMs Q4 sales
1/8th of CUBEs 4th quarter supply will decrease (assuming worst case scenario, ie, CUBE only gets TSM chips)...
so CUBE retains 7/8ths of their Q4 supply of chips....
Let's assume 50% of CUBE sales go to TSM for foundry (I think it's more like 20%, but 50% is ok for this.)
Assume CUBE Q4 revenues = 120MM, that's 60MM in Taiwanese chips (50%, which i repeat i believe is way too high)...
assume CUBE only has 7/8th of this available in Q4 from TSM... that's 52.5MM of the 60MM they need... CUBE's inventory as of last Q was 12MM... so this is more than enough to make up the 7.5MM shortfall from TSM in Q4.
So basically, from this, I gather that even if CUBE does have a supply shortfall in Q4, their inventories will be sufficient to compensate for this.
J |
