The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth Message Board

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To: Lucretius who wrote (65189)	9/29/1999 7:19:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 86076

ah i see...always the optimist....note that we did not breach yesterday's intra-day lows and trannies, utilities and the RUT all went up. there was some buying in beaten down stuff in other words. as to what that means, i'm not sure. i did like the selling in some of the big caps and i bought AMZN puts on the blow-off. they practically gave them away... spoos are now up a tad from the close...it appears fear has still not entered the picture. i watched the OEX options during the day and no eagerness to buy puts was discernible. put volume remains below average and near all-time lows when measured in dollars (on OEX puts anyway). yesterday we had a day that mirrored the action shortly before the '29 crash...and it was amusing to see that Acampora is now universally accepted as a contrary indicator, which of course invalidates him as such. at first i was shocked to hear him flip-flop again, but when i realized that even CNBC had picked up on it i guess that's a sure sign we can relax. i looked at B. Shaeffer's web site and found this: postures: stocks, ST: BULLISH since 08/23 bonds: Neutral since 08/10 gold: neutral as of today...bearish up until today. interestingly the ST posture on stocks switched from neutral to bullish 2 days before what remains the Dow's all time high to this date. i guess a neutral stance on gold is mildly bullish.... note that the stocks recommended as shorts or sells by trim tabs today ALL went down considerably...i'm still amazed trim tabs would come out with such recommendations. it is the first time i can remember them doing that. whatever happens from here (bounce, no more bounce), the saying by Baruch somebody posted today about the 'continuity of confidence' applies to this market. you don't get the moves we had in gold, bonds and the dollar without scratching confidence. it would be great if we had a crash, if only for the sight of Abby and Joey being at a loss for words for once. note that Joey steadfastly sticks to his Dow 12,000 target...he seems to be unaware of any problems. your Dow 4,500 target is way too generous...we could get a little bounce from the 2,700 area ('87 top), but ultimately the previous fourth wave low of 570 should be considered as a viable target. at that point the S&P dividend yield should be around 11% in spite of a global depression. i'd consider it a great buying opportunity. <GGG> just kidding! stocks only go up!

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