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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

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Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (27910)	9/29/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) of 99985

Dennis, i have a slight problem with the cycle low...it was scheduled for yesterday and as it hasn't been taken out yet i figure we could still consider it as valid. however, it was originally supposed to be a cycle HIGH and the last ST cycle turned down long before it should have. so there's a chance that a higher degree cycle has taken over and has negative connotations. there seems to be a lack of liquidity developing for various reasons. while short positions in the tech area are high, the high multiple stocks can not indefinitely stay that way if liquidity is diminishing. yes, the nutz look good, but not uniformly so. and while the momentum is with these stocks, i still think their valuations are outrageous. that doesn't mean they cannot run for a while longer, but i fear they will need the support of the broader market at some point, otherwise they will just enter into one of their violent corrective phases once again. OT i know the Brauenerhof of course, but not the Pension...no need for me to stay in one in Vienna... regards, hb

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