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Phil,
If you listen to the 'talking heads', we're already in a bear and have been for some time.
Much more than 1/2 the stocks traded are down much more than 25% even though the Dow, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 are showing impressive gains.
Yet this year, if one was in Semiconductors, Semi Equipment stocks, Oil and Oil services and now Gold stocks, one would handily beat the averages and the "bear".
I don't believe there's one monolithic stock market that can be exclusively a bull or a bear. Rather there's a market of stocks. Some go up, some go down, some tread water. The trick is to be in the right sector at the right time or to be very patient.
For the next 3-5 years, I strongly believe that the Semi Equipment sector will be one of those right sectors to be in. And as long as one holds those companies that have leading edge technology, one will do very well.
Possible exception to that last line is my stake in SVGI. While they've got great products, I'm not convinced that they have an equally competent marketing and sales organization with effective marketing and sales processes. Merrill just made them #2 on their list of top 10 potential gainers according to a post on the NVLS thread tonight.
I don't really know how high MTSN will go. But I suspect by the end of the millenium (Dec 31, 2000), we'll know that 15 wasn't even close.
JMHO,
Ian. |
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