Random musings on Gorilla Game theory......
Re-reading TFM, slowly, and finding some interesting real time correlates...in the chapter on Capturing the Gorilla
1. "A good signal to begin tornado buying (for enabling technologies) is when trade magazines stop printing articles questioning the readiness of a new technology for prime time and start printing ones focused on who is the emerging leader." Correlate: have never in my short-time as a dedicated investor seen so much FUD/anti-Rambus news, even prior to Camino bust; based on this, alone, Rambus was certainly not at the tornado and was not a gorilla. Of course, we have discoursed many times that it was only a "gorilla candidate" and how it was crossing the chasm with Camino availability and shipping of workstations...now forestalled.
2. "The amount of wealth generated by an enabling-technology tornado that creates a true gorilla dwarfs any other investment returns on the planet."....Correlate: every time I read this statement, I momentarily lose sight of what's important in life, start drooling and become incontinent; let's hope this is true for the Q.
3. "The biggest downside risk is when an enabling technology simply does not tornado. You can lose a big chunk of your investment the day the market wakes up to this outcome. That is why we recommend against investing in any pre-tornado concept plays. ..If the market does tornado, people who bought in advance of this event will make a huge killing.....but that way lies madness..."
Correlate: depending on one's flavor, the above supports buying Rambus now, or delaying. Same for Gemstar. It was certainly maddening for me when Intel stated earlier this month Camino would ship, then pulled the plug within minutes of shipping.
4. In the section on Stalking the Gorilla, Moore mentions that a tornado may fail to form because of complexity. "Typically, with adoption complexity, either the product is too hard to install or use, or the customer benefit is too foreign to the target user population."
Correlate: DRDRAM is certainly complex; many anti-Rambus techies point to it being too finicky, too complex and providing more than is currently needed for today's PC apps.
In all of this, I am not saying that Rambus won't someday become a gorilla.....just thought I'd contribute some Moorisms and some real-life correlates.
The bottom line is that for those who find value in gorilla game theory, re-reading TFM is a good idea, since it becomes more engrained and lessons are relearned with real life experiences fresh in mind. Thanx to Chaz, who long ago advised re-reading; and also advised reading Inside the Tornado, which I completed on tape.
Finally, Moore points out in the section on "When to buy" that one of the best ways to recognize a gorilla and tornado sighting is by......"participating in a good chat room or threaded discussion where you can bounce ideas off of other interested gorilla gamers before you make your call."
Hey Unq, got any recommendations as to the latter?<vbg>
With thanx and appreciation to UF and to the Roundtable, and to the thread,
Stan |
