SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Apollo who wrote (7225)9/29/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Stan,

Fatboy certainly did something I'd never try, not being an analyst. Though he didn't show us all the detail of his model, he obviously created one and is reviewing it.

Let's follow up on his bottom-line numbers.

Assuming a net profit % of 40 and a PE of 30x gives the following stock valuations:

YR 2000 $2.4 bil
Yr 2001 $3.8 bil
Yr 2002 $5.0 bil
Yr 2003 $5.6 bil
YR 2004 $6.1 bil

Using that information, we can back out the numbers to arrive at his EPS projections. I divided his projected market cap by 115 million shares and divided that again by his multiple of 30 to arrive at his projected EPS. His projection for EPS is on the left and the Stephens projection is on the right:

YR 2000 -- $.70 / $.81
Yr 2001 -- $1.10 / $1.17
Yr 2002 -- $1.45 / $1.73
Yr 2003 -- $1.62 / $2.34
YR 2004 -- $1.77 / $3.15

Notice that his estimates are pretty close to the earnings in the Stephens report in the early years but only half as much in the final year. I suspect that the reason for the dramatic divergence in the later years is because Fatboy assumed the same net profit of 40% throughout the years while the Stephens analyst assumed a gradual increase to 59% in the last year. (I didn't take the time to follow Fatboy's revenue projections to see how those compare with the Stephens report.)

I don't follow the Gemstar thread but anyone is free to copy this post in that one.

--Mike Buckley
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News