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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: chaz who wrote (7241)9/30/1999 3:27:00 AM
From: FLSTF97  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
As to Rambus, my thought is that its Gorilla potential is still intact.

I propose that (only partly facetiously) that Intel is dependent on Rambus. Assume that Intel makes the world's fastest CPU: 10 x that anybody else. Unfortunately in the real world it only executes programs 1% faster than the competitions' because the bottleneck becomes the memory. That means that their once prized, highly differentiated, high margin products slips closer to being commodity products. This is certainly not what Intel plans on letting happen. You can bet that Intel did not feel compelled to "share" $1 bil (or was it $700 mil, I forget) with Micron and Samsung because they had an overwhelming sense of altruism.

As to RAMBUS being hard to make work...big deal. I remember when people were adamant that MOS devices would never work, but then they learned to control sodium contamination. I also remember people then being certain that CMOS would never amount to much but then they started to understand latchup problems. The fact of the matter is that no IC or high frequency mother board is easy to build, but rest assured that they will be built.

Will that make them a Gorilla? Maybe not. Not every memory application will need the speed advantage to justify the additional cost. Is it nevertheless a good investment? That depends on how much of the market you believe they will really capture. I personally think it will be less than 50% by 2003, BWDIK!

Fatboy
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