Crickett: here's one better than a chip shot, gimmie, or a short putt... EEX !
Here's one that puts you in "eagle" 1-putt territory with a 350 yard drive off the tee...
EEX:
Is this the posterchild for negative sentiment, or what ?
But; that's actually a good thing... this stock has nearly a buck of "hate, stink & frustration" built into it. That = opportunity.
Have spoken with some industry folks. No one, including industry partners, current, or former employees who have seen the seismic work and know the prospects; doubt that this is a insanely undervalued company. No body...
One of the top traders in the Oilpatch finally returned my call mid day yesterday & he loves EEX here - is accumulating - because: I'll paraphrase here...
"EEX is mispriced here; because everyone is assuming their properties are not desireable; or have little value in the case of a property disposition, or potential acquisition. That is incorrect. Per the recent GOM lease sales; this is not an environment conducive to anyone making overtures to EEX. As the premium that EEX would demand - given their present valuation; would be unacceptable to the acquiring companies shareholders.
EEX has more than adequate cash and credit to adequately develop & exploit their prospects. The question is not will EEX have drilling success with their remaining portfolio; but, rather who will be at the helm when they "do" have that success... because they will ultimately be very successfull...."
His call for "fair value" on EEX right here; was about $6,7 and that includes a discount for their recent string of bad news. The arguement for $8,9 can easily be made... With any drilling success - $6-8 immediately; and with any follow up success; this sees $10-$12 within 12-15 mos.
It allways boils down to risk vs. reward. There are a lot of "Home Run" plays out there; where the upside is a 2-3-4 "bagger" return. HEC, SEV, FENYQ in BK, some of the micro's - but; given the GOM location of their prospects, their cash, their present cash flow & NAV; there is nothing with this upside, with this fundamental base valuation; the more than adequate availability of cash & credit; and their GOM location of their prospects is certainly more desireable than the Colombian, or International offshore plays...
Anyone desiring to dig in, at the plate & swing for the fences - this is the one.
EEX - everyone hates it, everyone is frustrated by it, - buy it & immediately get that "hate & frustration" discount at its peak imho; and given the recent oilpatch blowoff - we get the best of both "negative" worlds - that's hard for many to understand as being a buying opp - but it clearly is.
Buying & buying large...
"DD":
$1.82 cfps for 1999 = 1.76 x cfps
$2.23 cfps for 2000 = 1.49 x cfps
Book Value is $5.10 per share = 0.65 x book !
3 year growth rate = 20%
NAV $8 per share = .42 x NAV
$130 Million in CASH
$350 Million credit line
High Impact GOM prospects - including "company makers" of over 100M boe potential.
See published research reports from Dain Rauscher, Merrill etc. - their target prices from $8-$12 here are even more enthusiastic than the industry person I've spoken with.
This stock epitomizes the impact of frustration, negative sentiment- building into negative momenteum and has been magnified by the simultaneous Oilpatch selloff of late here... When so many investors get focused on the huge upside of their GOM drilling prospects - expecting that announcement that triples the stock overnight; they've totally lost focus on the underlying base of producing properties and cash flow.
What separates EEX from the other 3-5 "bagger" plays imho; is their funamental financial base, cash flow; and most importantly; that their prospects are in the GOM - with plenty of Industry Partner support and extremely positive potential seen by everyone in their holdings here.
These guys have $130 M in cash here people ! = $3.08 per share in CASH ! - AND; they have a credit line of $350 Million....
Who needs offshore New Guinea, Africa, or the Colombian plays... here's a Home Run in our own backyards....
Buy the stink, buy the hate, buy the frustration - because the discount given here from their recent drilling disappointment is such an over-reaction; that this has to be the single most undervalued Domestic play with the single most upside.
Do the "DD"... check the tape to see EEX's reaction after prior selloffs... |
