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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: bill meehan who wrote (65364)9/30/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
Stock bulls are getting desperate, pinning their hopes on
the "assurances" of the DJIA 200DMA of 10287.
Unfortunately, its beginning to look like
a ceiling.

The ChiNAPM index of prices paid jumped to 71
from 62.8 in August, now the highest since 6/95.
Bonds are holding their own since initial selloff
to 112-31. New Home sales ramp unabated. And
tomorrow's PI and USNAPM aren't likely to help much.
With dollar looking like dogmeat, hard to see bonds
ralling too far. A 112 handle is more likely than 114 IMHO.

Tankan survey Sunday evening likely to reinforce view
of rising rates in Japan and EEC.
Commodity prices in general are on the roll. And a
stock market that continues to rise also negatively impacts
bonds yields due to the additional implied wealth effect.

If the market rallies next Tuesday after no FOMC action,
I also believe that rally will fail severely.
BWDIK.
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