Sridhar, I have a very old moto, when TA and FA do not jive, believe the TA, the change in the FA will soon be visible thereafter. Maybe in terms of the scenario, you may want to view the current price situation as a battle between MU (and its promoters) and its lenders (the holders of convertible paper). MU needs to have that shitload of debt converted to equity (thus they need 20 out of 30 consecutive days of closing above $88 or so). The lender on the other hand have a conversion price of around $67/share, so as long as the stock is above that, they can hedge their position here and now, that hedging activity puts downward pressure on the price. That is why I think that the pressure will be alleviated once the stock gets to $67, but because of the general weakness in the market over the next few weeks and the inherent volatility (herd mentality) of the stock, I would not be surprised if we go down just under $60 (I have about $59 as a potential bottom). Then the MU forces will restart their concert of reits and we will once more try and get the "scenario" underway. This is just my "Turnips" opinion of course, and it is worth about $.02 if any.
Zeev |
