The share count will be the same this Q as last. Check your 10K. The 3+M options at $38, were just moved down from $50. They weren't in last Q's count. CUBE will use a share count number just north of 38M.
VCD was $43 to $45M last Q. They cut prices from an ASP of $25 (Conference call number) to $14- $17, or 40%. That's $18M to cover, if they sell the same number of units. Hans says they can only sell .8M units this Q, compared to 1.8M last Q. At $16, they would need to sell 2.8M units this Q to keep VCD flat.
If VCD revenue is flat, we will see some growth from the other markets, but what about margins. Last Q's net margins were 18.1%. A 40% price cut in VCD will hit here too.
I don't think they got very many ZiVa chips out the door, they were delayed because of encription chips being late out of Japan. ZiVa will really add to Q2.
Reserves are for the chips that CUBE costomers have in inventory. When they cut the prices, they gave rebates on the inventory of their customers. Taking care of their customers and keeping demand smooth. In effect, the price cut is retroactive. It would have effected .6M units, at least(could have been 1M). That would be $4.8M out of reserves.
Divi used to be a CUBE customer. When put together, you can't count the sales the same way. With's CUBE's loss of Divi chip sales, Divi is now about 20% of CUBE revenue.
Your $.47 est is the highest I can come up with, and you need to assume HUGE VCD sales and High margins. I don't think we're under $.42 though. |
