very interesting post, Bruce. It raises what I believe is a central, if not always acknowledged, question for members of this thread: the connection between the TECHNOLOGY/MARKETING GG and INVESTING STATEGIES designed to profit from it.
My impression is that most here accept Moore's GG concept as a useful way of thinking about new technologies and their adoption, but few favor his original GG investing strategy (buy baskets of gorilla candidates and then consolidate). In addition to discussing individual companies and technologies, therefore, the thread has been trying to assess the relative merits of alternate GG investment strategies.
One approach has been to try and "time" gorilla births perfectly: investing just before there is true confirmation of full gorilla status, so that one can capture most of the profit from the initial run-up during the early tornado. Another approach has been to wait longer but then jump directly into one company rather than a basket. Still other approaches are possible, and it would be interesting to see them outlined and discussed.
I think it would be especially fruitful to hear people's views on what the chart of a gorilla "should" look like. You write,
"For those who did make the early step to buying shares of RMBS before the true chasm was crossed it will be interesting to look back at a ten year chart to see how significant (or insignificant) a few months of having to wait will be on that chart.... Talk of worry about two quarters or even a few more than that as 'dead money' seems awfully short sighted to me as a LTB&H investor."
I'm not sure how representative QCOM is of the higher primates, but its chart is certainly distinctive, with official chasm-crossing (the Ericsson deal) representing a clean break and a dramatic difference in returns. How true was that of the other known gorillas?
Finally, quite separate from the risk that RMBS might eventually fall into the chasm rather than cross it, I think you are correct that the opportunity cost of "dead money" for several quarters relates to personal goals and portfolio management styles, not the GG per se.
tekboy |
