A few weeks ago, Jon Markman of Microsoft Investor asked me for stocks that I thought would compare to some of the (non-bio) great picks of the past. I picked the brains of some of the usual suspects, and this is the way it came out.......
moneycentral.msn.com
Occasional MSN MoneyCentral biotech correspondent Dr. Richard Harmon says he strongly doubts a biotech will gain 10,000% over the next 10 years, but when prodded recommends a look at BioTransplant (BTRN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Millennium Pharmaceuticals (MLNM), Pharmacyclics (PCYC) and Microcide Pharmaceuticals (MCDE).
What I meant to convey was "I feel that some biotechs have a shot, but I don't believe that anyone can have the foresight to name them". However, the list of stocks accurately reflects the comments from friends that I passed to Jon.
Yesterday I mentioned three stocks -- BTRN, NBIX and RGEN -- that I feel have a better than average shot at 50-100X. I support these threee stocks with a variety of funny looking eggs in the basket, including (currently, and among many others) PCYC and VRTX, but no MCDE.
To the list of three, I'll add CTII. However, I fear that the company may be backed into a "proprietary expansion of differentiated, allogeneic cells"-only corner. If so, then I'll take them off the list.
To further give a feel for how I think and invest.... I rarely go beyond a 7% position for any given company. This costs me when a stock does well (e.g., Arouron), but it helps with sleep. For companies with more "open questions" (e.g., unclear patent situations), I buy just a tiny smidge. Right now, I'd say that BTRN and NBIX are "sevens", and CTII and RGEN are "smidges". Contrasting opinions welcome.
I make exceptions for certain "no lose" situations..... Sibia was over 40% of net worth for me.
In the spirit of this thread, we'll move, for a brief period, to picking stocks that will do 50-100X within a 10 year time frame. Biowa adds NPSP, which, while I don't know them well, looks like a damn good "seven" candidate to me. |
