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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: tekboy who wrote (7284)10/2/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
tekboy,

I'm not sure how representative QCOM is of the higher primates, but its chart is certainly distinctive, with official chasm-crossing (the Ericsson deal) representing a clean break and a dramatic difference in returns. How true was that of the other known gorillas?

I've got a couple minor points followed by what might be a more significant point. You get to decide. :)

I think the Ericsson deal at the most signified the start of the tornado, not the chasm. I actually place the start about a year earlier, in April, 1998, based on the worldwide increasing rate of CDMA subscribers.

I've never taken the time to determine when CDMA adoption might have crossed the chasm. I'd be interested in seeing anyone's opinion about that and the supporting evidence. Determining when a product crosses the chasm is one of the most difficult aspects (for me) of gorilla gaming. If looking back at CDMA adoption helps us determine that in the future for other products, I'm all eyes and ears.

I'm not sure a post-Ericcson-deal comparison of Qualcomm with other gorillas will be valid. If the company announces the sale of its handset division by the end of the year as is the goal, it might be difficult to find an existing gorilla that at any time had its business model change as dramatically as Qualcomm's in such a short period of time. Going from a business model that builds the infrastructure and the end-user product to a business model that does neither in less than a year is astounding, possibly never done before.

--Mike Buckley
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