Donny, you ask an interesting question which requires some breakaway thinking.
".. what are some of your opinions on Covad/North renting space in COs. I belive the original contract was for three years. what do you think it will happen after that?"
Aside from some possible rent price haggling, their renewals will be no problem. Regulators will see to it that the private property rights of ILECS will continue to be unprotected, you can rest assured. It's the law. Besides, in three to five years the ILECs may be looking for new tenants. Read on.
Right now, for lack of any ingenious inventions of their own, the startup DSL plays are fully dependent on the ILECs to provide them with the "cages" which they need, to dwell in.
A more interesting question, however, might be how long will the DSL model in its current form remain relevant? Especially in large urban settings, and other venues where fiber-to-the-building and competitive wireless alternatives are soon to become widespread?
In the end, this business of setting up services for customers in large buildings and in some municipalities is still very often a dirty game, characterized by the survival precepts of the wild west. What will happen when the inevitable performance point is reached, into super dsl strata, when T-1 and sub-T1 rates which are supported by DSLAMs in the c.o just wont do? At that point, they will need to take fiber and hardware to the actual buildings they serve, reducing, in a way, their demands on central office space and copper loops in a growing number of situations.
Gaining a foothold in building spaces and risers, which means having relationships with building owners and managers in order to have easement spaces set aside, may well spell out the fates of many of these companies, over time, as the efficiencies of differing delivery schemes evolve.
One must always consider the longer term contingencies, which almost always take into account improvements in cable tv deep fiber approaches, and a broadening of the ILEC's [and a growing number of competitive fiber plant providers'] fiber loop footprints. Is the individual DSL service product -the one which depends on end office colo rights and loopus cuprus - the solution of the future? You did, after all, ask about three years out, didn't you? Comments welcome.
Regards, Frank Coluccio |
