CJ Q,
I don't think MOLEX will partner up with a hoax and neither would a head of CISCO photonics be a technical advisor. Apparently you and your freind haven't done an extensive research on LUMM. There have been specs and demos for the appropriate persons. You really think well accomplished scientist whom are well respected by their peers in the photonics industry quit their successful carreers to start up a hoax company. Give me a break. Your either being lazy and not doing your home work or have an agenda as I have mention here in my LUMM visit report from last weekend.
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LUMM VISIT REPORT
Spent the whole day Thursday traveling from Tucson to Montreal. At 9:30 am went to LUMENON Plant. Please excuse the eloquence of this report. I?ve been traveling all day, quite tired from the lack of sleep and excitement. I took a tour of the plant seeing for the first time a DWDM IC chip. I saw a sample of an 8 channel which was as described in previous articles half a plying card and kinda dark gray. There was a lab room and the clean room which contained many high tech equipment for various purposes. The floor, roof and rooms were made specially for this plant. I saw sol-gel in a couple of containers and learned a few things about some to the instruments and special table used in the lab. It was all over my head but still educational. Very expensive equipment.
We then started the meeting and during the different phases of the meetings, I met with Dr. Li, Iraj, SL and Vincent who is CFO at Lumenon.
Before I provide the results of issues discussed, I would like to point out that certain postings made regarding the technology and profitability of LUMM are absolutely false. Some of these postings were seen by LUMM and after review could not decipher what it even meant. Don?t be impressed by the technical jargon used and false formulated numbers used by such as Petabit, BEX and his cohorts. These individuals may have a hidden agenda or might actually be sincere (remember my 3 billion guess, that?s an example) in there attempts to forecast or conclude. No one can question the market potential because it?s common knowledge where photonics is headed. LUMM is at a point of discovery where PHASIC technology is no longer questionable. As Big Al noted in a previous post, a head of CSCO?s photonics which is a technical advisor to LUMM would not be supportive. His career and reputation would be on the line. So these posters with hidden agendas attack the competitiveness and profitability. These issues will be included in the following set of topics to be discussed. I just wanted to remind everyone to filter some of the negative postings made especially those made by BEX and his cohorts. For what purpose they are done can be anyone?s guess. Equally, outrageous hyping which has been few should also be ignored. I definitely am one of the cheerleaders of LUMM. However, my attempts are not ever meant to deceive. Incidentally, I had the Honor of meeting Don Johnstone for the very first time.I spent 2 days with this man and learned much about him. A statement he made during a conversation stuck in my mind. ?I feel a personal responsibility in providing as much as possible accurate information.? I know what Don?s agenda is, to make money in LUMM among other stocks, but to also be true to his fellow man. Remember the days when postings were few. It was reiterated many times the quality of content contained in LUMM?s RB and SI board. Don was mainly responsible for that. I for one will strive to provide accurate information and appropriate cheerlleading.
If unsure about a persons posting, ask them to qualify and validate, see input of others and if their mumbo jumbo appears suspicious, contact LUMM. I must warn you that SL is extremely busy. During our meetings, the phone constantly rang and he even showed us the volume of incoming e-mails in his inbox. It was tremendous.Be very patient. He tries to personally attend to everyone which can become mathematically impossible. He has help, but he is trying to respond to everyone personally. Of course, certain activities take priority sich as meetings with institutions and players of the industry. When our meeting ran through lunch time, lunch was ordered so that precious time would not be wasted.The meeting was cut short due to a scheduled meeting with an institutional analyst. I asked how often that occurred and apparently it has been happening quite often. We had dinner that night notebook in hand and continued on. My point is, LUMM is being discovered not only by individuals like us, but also institutions and big players in the industry. Be patient if LUMM cannot accommodate you right away. There are priorities to be taken care of.
SO LET?S GET TO BUSINESS!!! This is my take on what I learned from my visit.
Some terms learned;
Tele-comm photonic devices = For long haul
Data-comm photonic devices = For short haul
Active = Performs switching
Passive = Does not perform switching
Qualified IPO = LUMM?s option for an IPO
TOPICS DISCUSSED
PATENT ? If I remember correctly, there are a total of 3 patents and more to come. Iraj explained what has been protected which basically flew over my head. It?s processes for the making of the photonic devices. Be assured that LUMM is well protected in regards to their technology. I would assume that technology analyst from the major institutions visiting, LUMM?s partners including MOLEX and many others have questioned this same topic. It doesn?t appear to be an issue.
DWDM IC CHIP ? We are on schedule and will have our LUMM chip in the market place by ?spring of 2000?!!! I actually understood this process since it is a standard in the hardware and software industry. Beta testing should be completed by spring and the chip produced for GA (General Distribution) at that time. The chips being produced at this time are working and being fine tuned. YES LUMM chips are working!!! I personally think they are being conservative which most companies are when projecting dates. I guess we will see.
LUMM and MOLEX are working together to develop their own packaging system for the DWDM IC chip. Having already such great margins, the improvement in efficiency and cost savings will just add greater appeal to this product. I'm sure as time goes by LUMM will continue to discover new ways of getting the most out of their processes.
NASDAQ FILING ? Ahead of schedule folks!!! Vincent (CFO) explained that LUMM will be filing on the day eligible and it ?appears? that LUMM will be on NASDAQ by the end of the year!! This is excellent news in my opinion due to the exposure it will provide and the eligibility LUMM will acquire from institutional type entities. MERRY CHRISTMAS LUMMERS!!! For those waiting for the information, it?s coming.
COMPETITION ? First, I named of every name I came across with on our boards. Iraj proceeded to explain LUMM?s technology and what differentiated it from others. Mostly over my head but I think that basically, any high heat process introduces certain dissadvantages such as higher cost of materials, labor intensive processes and less quality product. My impression is that any high heat process cannot compete with LUMM?s low heat Sol Gel patented process. Others are also using silicon on silicon. Other institutions announcing their discoveries and work progress are still in a research phase and far off from getting our of the research phase. LUMM has been out of the research phase for a long time. Bottom line, at this moment there is no competition with LUMM?s technology. NONE!!!!
How about competition with the DWDM system. Short term the likes fo JDSU, SDLI and OCLI have nothing to worry about. Those companies have developed strong bonds and relationships with their present clients. Also, production of LUMM DWDM systems will be limited the first year. However, in the long term, as the LUMM DWDM systems enter the market, the competitiveness cannot be ignored. The lower cost, miniaturization and robust/flexible qualities will eventually force competitors clients to re-evaluate their options. Why? The clients of these competitors have competitors as well. Some will be using LUMM/MOLEX DWDM systems which not only performs better, smaller but cost less. I see this scenario playing out in the other markets they plan to enter. LUMM will not disclose any estimated amounts for competitive reasons. One thing is for certain, the potential profit margin is extremely high. The margin is very high.
EXPANSION PLANS ? LUMM is going from 20 chips a day which will be produced from the present plant to 500 chips a day when the big plant starts producing by the end of the year 2000. I?m guessing again that they are trying to be conservative and hopefully surprises us again with an earlier date. I?m thinking if the process of ordering the equipment is under way, they must be planning to get the ball rolling soon. Once plant #2 (big plant) is up and running and producing the 500 chips a day, they will soon beef it up with 1000 chips a day. That?s CONFIDENCE folks! LUMM has big plans in the works. One thing I found out was that LUMM?s manufacturing plant will not only have the capability of producing DWDM IC chips, but can be easily converted to produce other type of chips in an expedient manner. Here?s a hypothetical scenario;
Let?s say LUMM has the 1000 chip per day capacity up and rinning. Market demand for DWDM IC chips are lower in the months of May through August. In 4 days as oppose to 1 and half months , LUMM can convert one of their lines and continue producing DWDM IC chips on one line and whatever the market demands for the other. A company seeking chips to be manufactured with a fast response time will be looking for LUMM. If the mask was already planned ahead of time and were ready, manufacturing can occur in 4 days. I don?t think any other company in the world will be able to do this. Which leads me to a side business which LUMM have to do since no one else will be able to. The design industry which is in the long term but something to think about that can add to the bottom line.
Of course expansion plans include;
splitters, combiners, star couplers, directional couplers, gratings, interferometers, diffractive micro-optics, interconnects, cross connects, large scale photonic lightwave circuit modules, optical add-drops, dispersion equalizers, optical matrix switches, and modulators.
When LUMM enters the Data-Comm (Short Haul) market, they will dominate at point of entry. This market is larger than tele-com when it matures. At this point in time, it?s not feasible to enter the market due to it?s infancy. However, it?s a fast growing business and it?s my opinion that LUMM?s potential to be the next INTEL will be recognized at this point. Why? A LUMM chip can potentially be in every computer for the purpose of transferring data.
With all this expansion, I asked if the present team members would continue to run the company? Most likely not. It would just be too big and appropriate seasoned individuals will be sought out to run the show. They can run 1 big plant, but getting into 2, 3 etc? would be far to big. Who knows? Maybe Iraj and Mark will turn out to be the next Bill and Paul team.
POF ? When the appropriate time comes, LUMM will enter this market. Chips first and the specific POF market to mature. What will differentiate LUMM?s POF? Price. To answer Frank Collucio?s question, there is no linkage between the chip technology and POF technology. Two completely different photonic LUMM technology.
CONCLUSION ? My first realization was that fate must exist. I always believed that we are the sole captains of our ships. Learning for myself how such an impressive group of individuals, each with their own set of talents were put together prompted me to ask; How could these people been thrown together like pieces of a puzzle fitting together so well? I have seen shows on stories about how ORACLE, MICROSOFT, CISCO etc? To actually experience the story unfold opened my eyes to the complex collaborative efforts between such individuals is absolutely essential to the success of a company. The saying ?they were the right people at the right time? appropriately applies to the story of LUMM. There are many brilliant people in this world (not too many Iraj?s) but the special combination at LUMM makes a powerful force. It?s a mixture (formula) which explains their present successes and why I believe in the future prosperity that shall follow. You?re saying I?m being premature. The high caliber of people at LUMM compliment one another and the synergy is overwhelming. You all know I was a believer of the incredible photonic market potential and LUMM?s technology. I am now also a believer if the present management. Mistakes may have been made. They have over come them. I truly feel we are all involved in something big. |
