<<how do you mean perceptual crossing the chasm? Could it not be perceptual bowling pins or perceptual tornado?>>
Point taken. As you say, "the majority of people who drove [QCOM] up 55 points after earnings were not gorilla gamers," so trying to pin down just where in the GG they thought the stock was is kind of silly.
Still, the most important factor for most serious investors is probably the perception of a company's future revenue stream. The chief obstacle to imagining a large such stream for QCOM, as far as I understand it, was doubt about whether CDMA could establish itself as a widely used standard--i.e., doubt about whether the product would cross the chasm. That doubt was what the Ericsson deal eliminated, so that's why I said the deal represented the perceptual chasm-crossing.
I take your and MB's point, however, that a lot of the stock price leap was a simple momentum play based on increased earnings--due at least partly to the infra sale--and so the charts of other gorillas may not exhibit such a sharp break.
I think it would be a fascinating and instructive exercise to compare the long-term charts of the main gorillas and gorilla-candidates, and see just what patterns exist in them and how those patterns relate to different events (earnings, suit settlements, analyst reports, etc.). This would be a great help in developing well-grounded rules for perceptual GGers. I have neither the time nor the expertise to do such analysis myself now, but maybe eventually...or maybe others...
free-ridingly,
tb |
