Lee and All: I posted this chart on the Futures Thread Friday after the bell. I thought it would be of interest on MDA as well.
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - QChart 30-Minute Semi-Log Chart
homestead.com
I have not updated my I-35 Road Kill Update since September 15th for good reason, my stance has not changed. However, I have updated all three charts that are linked. In my opinion, the Market is on the edge of a strong move. If you did not get defensive when recommend at the time of the last update, I suggest you re-consider. I guess it is only fitting I make this post now, after all the month is October...<g>
You can access those charts by going to the I-35 Road Kill Trading System Update page at: <gg>
homestead.com
I am beginning to believe, I am going to indeed get my long expected in unison down move of both bond rates and equities. The launch of the major equity indexes in Oct 98 illustrated by my OMC Index (I believe was the beginning of a blow off move) lead to a Dec 98 break above the OMC's multi-decade rising trading channel. This move up in the major equity indexes has been paralleled by a run up in bond rates. The end for the moves for both draws near and is strikingly apparent in my weekly and monthly combination charts.
I am not saying that we may see some more upside for the major equity indexes, but from this point forward, the risk to reward ration is high. I know many that read MDA are day/swing traders and it will be very hard to stay out of the Market. I would recommend reducing equity exposure in long and medium term investments and reducing day trading portfolios to speculation monies.
I could bring up the A/D line and several other indicators that support my expectations, but I do not have the time this weekend. Those points have already been made by many on this thread countless times. Many on this thread have talked about the many negative fundamentals and internal technicals, but the hard part has and always will be the timing. Recently several "I get paid for my stuff Gurus" and "SI Notables" formally of the bearish persuasion converted to a more beefy posture...<g>
Allow me to just say, for those that have not made the mistake of putting all their chips in a stock that has recently plunged, it is still not to late to take a defensive posture! I will not presume to tell individuals how to take that posture, but cash can be comforting at times...<g>
Now I could be completely wrong this time, but it just seems prudent to me at this time, to step back and wait for the Market to reveal its true course. I know that one may miss the intital move leaving some chips on the table, but that is the price of insurance. I know you have seen me post this before, but the reality is...this Bull Market is very long in the tooth and caution is not an unreasonable stance at these valuations.
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions. |
