Jim sometime late in April or Early may (the stock was in the low $40 and going back down to the mid $30') I suggested that MU's stock will rocket later this year (sometime after after July 2nd) and stay above $87 for 20 out of 30 consecutive days. This to force the conversion of outstanding convertible debentures (quite a lot). This is what we refer to on the thread as the "scenario". Later I suggested that in order to achieve this, the stock will have to sometime get above $95, and that will unleash the MoMo crowd, since it would be an all time high for MU, and thus I suggested that we could see, under the scenario, MU trading as high as $115 or so (a spiky $115 at best, just above $100 more likely). Skeeter felt at the time (MU at $40) that we are never going to get even close to $87, so far, we reached $85, if it is due to scenario or not, no one knows, but it was not a bad call, whatever the rationale (VBG, here you can see me patting myself on the shoulder VVBG)).
Here is some relevant text from MU filings relative to their debentures:
[...]and will be redeemable on and after such date at the option of the Company,
in whole or in part, upon not less than 20 nor more than 60 days' notice to each
Holder, at the prices set forth herein plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to
the redemption date;
They could force it, but they would have to pay accrued interest on a forced
redemption...hang on though...
provided that the Notes will not be redeemable following July 2, 1999 and before
July 3, 2001 unless the last reported sale price for the Company's Common Stock
is at least 130% of the conversion price for at least 20 trading days within a
period of 30 consecutive trading days[...]
Oops! 130% of 67.44 = 87.67, needs to have a last sale above $87.67 for 20 out of
30 days. Never mind!
[...]ending within five trading days of the call for redemption.
And here are some posts in which the scenario is discussed (only a small minority of course, if you want more, use the search engine for this thread with "scenario", there is only one "scenario" discussed here since May.
techstocks.com
techstocks.com
techstocks.com
techstocks.com
Message 9627875
Zeev |
