First time poster:
First off, a confession and some thank you's: My brother directed me to the FM and this thread this spring, and prior to that, I had been creatively throwing money away in various penny stocks. (Confessing your transgressions is good for the soul - could one of the Knights of the thread absolve of me of that sin?) After finding the manual, this thread, and the error of my ways, I'm happily in the Q and looking at Gemstar at the moment. This is the first SI thread I read each day, and many thanks to all the contributors (Lindy, your investing-history post was very inspiring, and I've sent it to several friends.)
I've always found investor psychology fascinating (especially my own) and have enjoyed the 'Perceptual chasm-crossing' thread. Please forgive me rambling on about it, but I wanted to throw this out to the thread and see if it's relevant. I've been thinking all weekend about investor sentiment as it relates to GG matters, and I'm curious if anyone has read any of George Soros' writings about 'investor bias'. Someone mentioned 'fundamentals' vs investor psychology' (sorry for the paraphrasing), and Soros has made a point that I think is relevant to the discussion. He believes that investor bias (his term)actually IS a fundamental, (and an almost-always overlooked one) given certain circumstances and market conditions, especially in fast-moving markets.
I've been trying to fit that with GG theory, and please excuse my newbie attempt to do so. It seems that investor bias would matter the *least* to an established gorilla on Main Street, and the most to a candidate such as Gemstar or Rambus. A couple of possible scenarios are: the product-adoption chasm has been crossed, but not the perceptual chasm, and the Gorilla candidate or product is lacking a final fundamental, investor bias, to have the stock reflect the new Gorilla status. This seems to me to be the sweetest possible circumstance for a gorilla hunter, since the candidate is one Defining Event or perceptual shift away from a Qualcomm-like burst - and Gemstar *seems* to fit that scenario.
Another scenario is that investor bias has gotten ahead of the other fundamentals, and (Soros claims that bias can be a fickle thing early on) any bad news can cause it to reverse and take a long time to recover. I don't know if Rambus is flirting with this or not.
In the long run, this probably doesn't matter, but it strikes me as most relevant for the initial entry into a potential primate. If Rambus is truly gorilla material, market perception will eventually get on board, but spotting a Gemstar that may not have yet had it's coming-out party/defining event seems like a lot of fun. <g>
I hope you'll forgive me for mixing too many metaphors here. Trying to incorporate Soros, or anyone else's ideas, into GG theory may not prove to be useful, but...I did it anyway. <g> Thanks again for a great group.
Sam |
