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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7354)	10/3/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Mike, << interesting to see how the various manuals define the tornado, bowling alley, etc. I'll be taking one or two of the pre-game books on vacation with me soon too >> I'm becoming more and more convinced that using "Chasm (RE)" & "Tornado" as supplements to GG is quite worthwhile. Darn good trilogy. Geoff's on a roll and it would not surprise me to see him publish an RE of "Tornado". << "official" :) start date of the CDMA tornado. If you take a look at the table of growth that I posted earlier today >> Nice work, as always. Watching subscriber growth quarterly can be very frustrating for the reasons you cite. Also churn and prepaid add their own wrinkles. I always look forward to the year ending stuff with forecasts published by the big research firms. Typically they use results through Q2 that are pretty well scrubbed by end of Q3 and get into print Q4. Julian Herbert of EMC will present his initial stuff fresh out of the box as always (with a few mistakes - numbers that don't cross foot, etc.) November 8 at "GSM in North America" in San Francisco. The final topic of his presentation will be "Is a Pattern Emerging that can Project Future Growth?" He or Nigel Cawthorne will then represent same material cleaned up at the GSM world congress in Cannes in February. Unfortunately for their forecasts (as opposed to updated year ending stuff) you gotta pay. Cahners In-Stat and DataQuest should also be out about the same time with new numbers. Again for the lower level detail you gotta pay. This year should be interesting. Typically everybody forecasts out 5 years. For the first time this year we should (?) start seeing some 3G numbers (WAGs). << it's hard to argue that we're not in a full-fledged, sustained tornado of CDMA adoption >> No question, and inside the bigger sustained tornado of mobile wireless adoption, with several other tornadoes forming within the bigger industry, like Wireless Internet which really started with the Mobile Data Initiative a few years back and has got a heck of a kick in the butt from technology agnostic WAP which certainly helps CDMA at just the right time. Voice and IP getting big, and VOIP coming right behind it. There will be lots to discuss here going forward which makes close study of the RM and its pregame companions very worthwhile. Your efforts in this regards are Super Human. Does anybody have any Idea when Gilder's "Telecosm" is due to publish? - Eric -

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