Hi Dave, re: SONET stats, next gen alternatives, etc.
                           At first I began replying to you assuming that the author was                           writing from the perspective of the enterprise user organization.                           Then I re-read Raj Shanmugaraj's synopsis after a spell, again, and                           realized he was viewing the matter from a next gen fiber network                           carrier's perspective. Oh, well.. some triage, and some                           marrying of the two perspectives in the following unified reply.                           --------------
                            From the article, you cite:
                           re<< Transparent LAN service will require the evenly spread                           model of bandwidth distribution.>>
                           Then you note, >>Is this really true, or just a "taking the easy way                           out" view of what really is a far more complex problem than can be                           described by a linear/uniform distribution?<<
                           He's being overly general here. But before I address this point, let's                           see what he had to say before that. He stated:
                           "Next-generation carriers build their networks as they acquire                           customers on a "Just-in-Time" basis. The result is that metropolitan                           fiber topologies in  new carriers tend toward natural meshes. The                           result is the ring topology that has become the norm under SONET                           is an impediment to the " Just-in-Time" business models needed by                           next-generation carriers."
                           Some timely and good ideas, but he gets ahead of himself and                           doesn't explain what layer of infrastructure is already in place. Is he                           talking about the physical pulling of cable here? Or, simply the                           addition of virtual links onto paths that are already established?
                           Surely, as most fiber carriers of any appreciable size will attest,  when they decide to penetrate a market one of the first things they  tend to is securing rights of way and pre-laying cable, or pre- conduiting,                          in circular (rings, in effect) physical routes. These need not necessarily                           be topologically ring based, such as SONET would imply, but they                           are almost always topographically circular in nature, or perimeterized                           in an interlocking fashion, so as to leverage adjacencies and  maximize the yield per route. 
  Whether intentionally, or otherwise, this will also (almost invariably) aid in the fail-safeness of future topological options and schemes, as well. 
  There is no such thing as point and click in this game, where creating new physical routes is concerned, and a bunch of homework and planning  needs to be done in order to cope with franchise issues, not to mention  coordinating digging and construction schedules with other operators. So, I would dispel the JIT argument if he is truly talking about how to approach a market from scratch. Unless, again, he is referring to the creation of higher layer customer links onto physical paths which already exist. ----
                           Getting back to your question, since he is taking LANs into                           account, as well he should, then I can't dismiss the realities of the                           user's LAN environment. I have to ask, in turn, what kinds of                           networking topography(ies) or domains is he matching up, or                           referring to? 
                           -WAN/Internet                           -MAN/CAN - Metro and Campus Area Networks                          -carrier provided loop section, or campus links                           -building entrance facilities                          -LAN concentration/aggregation points                          -riser backbones                          -distribution closets                          -horizontal links to end points
                           Those are only the physically defined domains of interest, and they                           do not address the various networking topologies and protocols                           that are possible.
                           The end user's in-building riser bandwidth (i.e., their backbone                           fabric) should be so plentiful that enough 'head room' exists within it                           to absorb just about anything that user traffic presents when both                           end points which are communicating are on the same LAN. 
                           If not, then simply sink some more capital on a one-time basis into                           more parallel riser backbone or campus backbone pipes, or                           distribution links to the end points. This is a relatively inexpensive                           point solution when compared to the ongoing costs of similar                           amounts of bandwidth in the greater WAN.
                           LANs/CANs are very friendly this way, and a one time sunk cost                           can get you near enough bandwidth so as to be never fully usable.                           This is the major distinction between local and wide area networking                           which has historically, up until recently, been the cause of the                           "great divide" between LANs and WANs.
                           On the local loop it gets proportionately tighter if you are using T1,                           T3, or OCn, etc. tariffed services (but less so with metro dwdm,                           one would assume) and in the WAN segment, tighter still. 
                           If the WAN, in fact, is the Internet (as it is increasingly being                           referred to these days, even by networkologists), then the costs of                           Internet port sizing will come into play and govern just how                           evenly spread, end to end, bandwidth could be. Not to                           mention, I should add, the vagaries of b-w supplies at various                           points along the 'net, itself.
                           I am referring to the T1/T3/OC3/etc. port costs, which for T3 ports                           on the 'net, say, could be as high as $50,000 to $65,000 per month, or                           more, depending on the SP and features agreed on. 
                           That's an incremental annualized expense of some ~$700,000 per                           major location plus the cost of loop charges (another $40,000/annum                           for T3s, on average, if close proximity exists between the user and                           the ISP), per major geographic location. Lower amounts would apply                           to branch offices, and smaller locations, of course, since their port                           sizes would be correspondingly less, as well.
                           If the WAN is a private enterprise network, then ditto in spades, as                           the economics of a traditional private WAN will restrict the port                           sizes even further, since the same economies of scale and statistical                           advantages do not exist in this case.
                           How "evenly spread" across all of these domains, then, becomes a                           spending decision for the user to determine on the basis of                           cost-benefit.  
                           One thing is for sure, tho, and that is that the costs will not be                           evenly spread, despite shrinking b-w costs and the new availability                           of fiber/lambdas in some still privileged areas where fiber carriers                           dare to buck the incumbents and their regs. 
                           The proposition offered by the author is an ideal one, but IMO, too                           broad to be taken as a single rule of thumb for most practical                           situations which are broad based, still.                           ----
                           When GbE from the enterprise building meets a tariffed WAN or                           local loop, there is almost always a step-down/step-up process                           taking place through store and forward bridging as protocols are                           converted from IEEE to ANSI T (although, wire speed cut through in                           certain cases when the carrier permits same, or where metro dwdm is                           employed). 
                           Which means that where these dissimilar domains meet a bottleneck                           potential exists requiring buffering and the ability to do flow control.                           Alternately, dropped packets, if adequate traffic management                           measures don't exist, or if buffers are not sized properly.
                           "In fact, the statement in the paragraph that follows the above:
                                <<The  next generation carrier     environment will demand an                               inter-office transmission     system that is a more agile     manager of                           bandwidth...>>
                                seems to imply a non-linear model.
                           Agreed, it seems he is taking a more practical approach at that point.
                                re:<<About 70     percent of the SONET rings     operate at                           OC12-or-less line     rates. >>
                                Does that seem accurate to you?
                           Yes, thus far, I would think, but I don't have any accurate statistics                           on this. Some reasons for this may not be obvious, and there may be                           an offsetting argument to his observation. 
                           One must consider that the next step up from an OC12 is OC48, a                           non-trivial step up for some carriers who have legacy 12's in place.                           Also, there is what I call a Times Four pattern at play here: OC3,                           OC12, OC48, OC192, and now an emerging OC768. Times Four. This                           doesn't quite fit the "powers of ten" definition, but the same                           principles of gain are at work.
                           The offset? When some systems are brought up as OC12, they are                           actually early add ons to infrastructure occupying the shelf space,                           and a single STM module (OC12), in an OC48 system. Again, these                           may be during periods of early growth. Through modular expansion,                           these 12's can be incremented, at will, to the next b-w requirement                           through the addition of optical line card modules.
                           Also, multiple [up to four] OC12s can be derived from the same                           OC48 add drop mux, or ADM, which makes his observations kind of                           moot in this respect, when you think about it. How many different                           ways do you want to slice an apple?
                           <<Bandwidth scalability and the ability to overlay existing                           SONET rings can be accomplished through the use of DWDM >>
                                Does this provide the fine level of granularity the author speaks                           of?.. 
                           I think that this is a relative assessment, hence a subjective one. For                           a carrier, yes, these increments in b-w might be considered "fine"                           ones, but for an enterprise who must pay the freight across vast                           distances, they might be seen as monumentally coarse.
                            "It seems in one sense the author is saying the SONET ring                           topology is just "getting in the     way and should be dropped rather                           than band-aided into oblivion," and in another sense     the author                           says next generation carriers need to consider compatibility as a                           foremost     concern:"
                            <<This must also work in rings for the purpose of overlaying                           existing SONET fiber topology and for service     providers that are                           more acclimated to ring operation>>
                                "I'm not real sure what he's trying to say..."
                           Hard to tell, but I would bet that a great part of this probably has to                           do with what he perceives (and is probably correct in) as work                           habits, legacy thinking, all the things that are on the side of new                           startups who do not carry the baggage on their backs that the                           incumbents do. Also, the embedded infrastructures, both                           administrative and operational, which established carriers have in                           place need to be leveraged and fully used in order to maximize                           investment potentials (so conventional wisdom dictates, in any                           event), which newer frameworks of fiber-based networking are not                           fully conducive to.
                           Next stop, self healing and failover schemes. Later.
                           Regards, Frank Coluccio |