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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: rel4490 who wrote (7342)10/3/1999 7:31:00 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
rel4490,

<< I think that you have stumbled onto a very important investment corollary to GG analysis. It takes both a fundamental crossing of the chasm and a perceptual crossing by the market for the stock to react. The two crossings probably never occur at the same time. Merlin believes that the fundamental crossing for the Q took place a full year before the perceptual crossing. The market required a Defining Event (the litigation settlement) before reacting >>

Your important investment corollary I thought was worth repeating in its entirety, after Joel just called it to my attention again.

Merlin noted substantial increases in the cdma subscriber base in March 1998. There was another signal, early in 1998 (January) that cdma had possibly crossed the chasm, or soon would be doing so, and this was when W-CDMA was offered to the International Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents as their proposed third generation standard, acknowledging the technical superiority of CDMA as an air interface.

<< Perhaps this means that it is prudent to modify GG investment theory by taking a more aggressive stock position when the market is waiting for a Defining Event ... Gemstar.

Interesting thought. I was lucky to have done this with Q. The stock ran up quite a bit in the quarter preceeding the Defining Event, then took off like a rocket. Could happen with Gemstar.

- Eric -
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