Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 145.55

-1.3%

12:42 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3373)	10/3/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) of 5867

Brian, I was not going to add any additional LRCX shares but I could not resist the temptation and add some shares when it slipped to high 50's after the Taiwan earthquake. I really don't expect any negative impact of the earthquake on LAM's financial performance. In fact, due to the earthquake, LAM will actually gain minor service revenue. The real impact of Taiwan earthquake for the most semi-equipment manufacturers is that it has prolonged the shortage of chips and the companies which were a bit hesitant on additional capital spending is feeling more sure about allocating more money for capex. I am expecting additional pull-in this Q and orders for next Q for LAM, which will give some upside potential for earning and a healthy BTB ratio for the next Q. I have been told that business at Samsung is booming: employee will get a nice fat bonus this year and they will soon finalize additional capital spending plan for next year. Combined entity of Hyundai and LG will actually have a profitable year for a change and now that the merger issues are mostly behind, they are also looking increase spending for more equipments. Also from talks with folks from AMAT, Singapore and Malaysia are also looking to build additional fabs soon. Of course, it will take at least an year for these fabs to be built. Does this mean we will see very anemic growth for about a year before all these new fabs gets constructed? My opinion is NOT. We still have some empty shells for Micron (Utah fab?) and Hyundai (Scotland) that could be filled now. In addition, to pump out more chips for wafer, there will be aggressive spending for equipments for .18 um or below. I think this is already occuring for all geographic regions (Taiwan, Korea, US). All this means a steady and modest growth for next two Q's and accelerated growth for thereafter. So I am expecting very positive comments for LAM's management team for the future outlook at the upcoming conference call. Now that current Q has ended. I am going to make some guess with LAM's revenue number. I am expecting the revunue to be in the range of 245 to 255 million and earning to be somewhere in between 53 to 56 cents per share. This might be a bit aggressive number but I hope that they can hit this number. In addition, I am expecting BTB ratio to near 1.1 which yields the order to be about 270 million. Let's see if LAM can bring us another pleasant surprise at the upcoming conference call.

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