John,
I can comment only on the few stocks you mentioned.
Like you, the Ram is on the back burner for me too. It has been all along but the recent Camino problem moved it further back. If the current Intel fiasco proves to be a non-issue in coming months, there will be plenty of time for me to move it to the front burner.
I disagree that NTAP has had its run. Over many years, it's hard for me to conceive that any leader in the storage business won't be a lot more valuable than it is today, notwithstanding a discontinuous innovation that displaces the technology, of course.
You're right that Citrix is confusing. But it might be less confusing as two things occur over time. The first will be better explanations to the investment community by the management team. The second will be greater product adoption to the point that investors, themselves, are aware when they are using it at their own desktops. Both are likely in my opinion, though both will take time.
In the mean time, the one prevaling issue for Citrix is that management has consistently increased top- and bottom-line growth. That in itself won't be ignored forever by the investment community.
I think people here in the folder have presented some very compelling arguments for Sandisk. I like the idea that it sells an enabling technology used by consumers. It might be well worth a close look if you haven't taken the time.
I still like Siebel an awful lot, though I do think the growth has to be monitored carefully. It's the only purely applications gorilla candidate in my portfolio. All the others lean toward enabling technologies or are purely enabling products.
I agree with you that Microsoft and Cisco have a lot of life left. I think that's also true of Intel. My expectation is that the company will take on an added dimension as king in some new areas. Its cash hoard and attention to efficiency will make it especially tough on competitors in upcoming royalty games.
As for Gemstar being expensive, that is a very timely comment of yours. I ran some valuations just tonight in my pursuit of a decision about whether or not I should soon add to my position. See my next post about that.
I agree with you that right now no company has the lock and resulting potential for growth that Qualcomm has. If the Gem obtains settlements or rulings that are the close to the best we might expect, I'll put the Gem up there with Qualcomm. But that hasn't happened ... yet. :) Add the perceptual stuff that has come to light this weekend, and I'm even more convinced that Qualcomm would be the one stock I would own right now if I were to choose only one.
But I won't.
So I have to look for other alternatives even if they don't show quite the same combination of promise and safety. That's why Gemstar, Siebel, Citrix and Cisco are also in my portfolio.
--Mike Buckley |
