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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 239.47

-0.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Bill Murray who wrote (209)	6/4/1996 11:20:00 PM
From: WHL	of 53903

Bill: If you are correct that "everyone has given up" on Micron, then you perhaps have identified an appropriate time to buy Micron. A look at the 180 day chart for Micron will show a nearly perfect "head and shoulders" bottom. The first leg to 30 was followed by a rebound to 40+. This is the classic dead cat bounce. It seems to result from unbelief in a major drop. The next leg down took us through the support at 30 and into the high 20's. The buying that took place at this level was value based buying. It propelled the stock back up to the high 30's. At that point those tired of waiting to get back 'what they'd lost' started to dump out of desperation. This dumping has taken us down to support at 30. Support has held here twice even though by now almost "everyone has given up". Micron's stock price could rachet down into the 20's- no question. But perhaps even more likely is that a good book-to-bill in a few days followed by a good earnings report the end of next week (primarily due to cutbacks in new plant expenses- something Micron has always been quick to recognize) will begin a significant upleg. If it does- this time there will be no looking back. Pooh on resistance at 34, 37, 41 or anywhere else below 45. In 3-5 years is this a $50-75 per share stock? Barring a major market collapse- I think so. As a result value is likely to creep back into the equation soon. If not in the next two weeks then soon- very soon. (ie. within the next quarter or two.)

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