T & all newbies looking for VLNC information:
What you've just witnessed via the past nights "conversations" had nothing to do with VLNC per se, and everything to do with the latest variant in primate dominance theory. ;-)
Ultimately it comes down to VLNC management performing. L.D., and crew, have basically had almost two years to bring VLNC to commercial fruition. So what have they done in the intervening time? Well, it boils down to this:
1. They appear to have at least two lines at their Northern Ireland facility more, or less, operational, with more to come. Based on this management is claiming a target run rate of ~$75 Million by end of next year.
2. I say more or less because they've provided "refined" product to two joint partnerships, Hanil in South Korea and Alliant, a military subcontractor vying for the U.S. Army's 21st Century assault rifle contract. One can consider that providing these two partners with product is proof of the concept. However, relying strictly on their SEC filing statements, the lines are not yet completely ready.
3. Other former partnerships, specifically Delphi, have gone on to announce commitments to lith-poly products of their own. Products based on original research conducted between them and VLNC.
4. Insiders have been buying heavily in the past three months(to the tune of ~300,000).
5. Institutions have been buying VLNC's "just on time" financing, one of which is a big international bank known as HSBC(hey Larry, did you call the TA regarding the more recent round?, heh).
The above represents some of the positive aspects of VLNC. Some of the negative you've already witnessed in the form of all the past nights arguing over Castle Creek(a hedge fund who purchased VLNC's Preferred A & B in return for a thing known as a floor-less convertible), and what they may, or may not, be doing to insure their hedgie maximum return on investment in the least amount of time strategy. Another negative is the competitive arena is heating up, proven by recent announcements about other manufacturers now beginning the process of ramping up their own lith-poly capabilities. This implies VLNC's window of opportunity is closing by which they can glean a market share size sufficient to survive into the next "round" of industry evolution. Thirdly, VLNC managements reticence in discussing where they are right now, combined with seemingly endless rounds of just in time financing, plus nothing being announced as of today regarding P.O.'s, has lead to a certain amount of investor uncertainty as to what the short term portends for VLNC equity valuation.
Hence the equally endless set of arguments by the primates, all in an attempt to seize the high ground.
Ultimately, the only thing which now matters is VLNC management completing the process they set out on close to two years ago. And that is, the public announcement that VLNC has garnered purchase orders from one, or more, OEM'S(Other Equipment Manufacturers). This is the one thing currently missing from the VLNC equation.
It's the only thing at this time which counts.
John~ |
