The upcoming IPO of Optical Access now seems to be definite per Noam per Duffeck on Yahoo!.
I remember in the Q2 Conference Call that Noam mentioned 10-20 times future revenue as their expected range for IPOs of Optical components companies. The original Van Kasper report projected OA's 2000 revenue to be over $90 million - see this excerpt:
<<Over the last twelve months, the explosive deployment DSL and cable modems are dramatically increasing the demand for bandwidth. As a result, MRVC's Optical Components business has begun to accelerate it's growth rate to 30% up from 20% in 1997, and has reached an annual revenue run rate of $63 million. We expect this trend to continue and [* estimate sales could reach $91 million in 2000 *], 40% over the 1999 estimates of $65 million. [*A large part of this demand has been derived from Bell South's FTTC project, which has deployed over 100,000 of MRVC's Duplexers and Triplexers. ] We estimate that this project will add an additional 200,000 to 300,000 units by year-end and [* may potentially double in 2000. Additionally, we expect other Telecommunications and Cable companies to adopt MRVC's FTTC solution and ramp up over the next 18 months. *] >>
Now 10 X $91 million is $910 million, which is close enough to $1 BILLION to use the term here. In other words, even using the low end number, OA alone will be valued at over $30 per MRVC share.
OA is certainly worth this as other IPOs have been in this range, and it is not only profitable, but has ALWAYS been profitable for 9 years, they have a major, highly visible winner in the Bell South/Marconi project and revenue growth has been accellerating over the last year and is expected to continue accelerating in 2000.
The full Van Kasper report might be worth reviewing at this time too.
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