Zurdo...DBCC, MALL, and IDTC have been the 3 stocks compared most to NAVR in this backdoor IPO hoopla. I don't know much about MALL, but did watch DBCC and IDTC. Let's assume that Paulson and his merry men plan to IPO this company (NETR) on 15 October, a Friday.
DBCC IPO'd MKTW on 15 January, another Friday. From the charts, it looked like DBCC peaked to $50 5/8 intraday on 12 January, a Tuesday prior. The market was closed that Monday, BTW. You are correct in guessing that NAVR may still have its day next Tuesday or Wednesday. However, from the charts I noticed the following difference: there was heavy volume in DBCC the week prior. Shares were trading hands left and right. The was a lot of interest in the IPO; there were news releases left and right; CNBC coverage was hyping it up; and all sorts of day trader talk/hype was buzzing the boards. I don't see the same interest and the accompanying heavy volume in NAVR. Additionally, DBCC also ran from about $10 to $20 that December before, a level well above the range most IPO players bought in. NAVR hasn't run anywhere this past month; it is still below the teens that most people waiting for this IPO play bought in.
Later, IDTC IPO'd NTOP on 29 July, a Thursday. IDTC never really "peaked" per se. The highest it traded on the "IPO-run" was two Mondays prior (19 July) at $25 1/8 intraday high. Volume that week was pretty average to low, but the stock held on to its levels until Friday (23 July) where it closed at $24 1/8. The next Monday (26 July) the selling started and IDTC started to drop, closing at around $22. By IPO day, it lowered to $20 and change. After the IPO, the selling continued and IDTC was as low as $13 and change on 5 August (5 trading days later).
I see NAVR more like a IDTC than DBCC. Indicators include low to average volume with no significant rise in price. The way both companies handle their PR is also very similar. IDTC was very secretive about its IPO; the SEC filings were not very well publicized, and, if I'm not mistaken, some second/third tier underwriter did the offering as well. NAVR's management have failed to secure the shareholders value by not talking up this new company, supposedly an IPO hot item all of last year.
All the clues tell me that NAVR probably won't move very far from current levels up. For me, it means that its not worth the effort to find a broker to short this stock post IPO (don't have the time now to go searching around). The lack of a huge run up means I'll have to find a broker with many shares to lend. The low interest and volume in the stock probably means that very few have shares to short. So far, both Datek and Ameritrade (my two accounts) told me that the stock is non-marginable/shortable.
I hope you are right about the $20 price, if you are still long this stock. However, with the Fed playing market bear this week, I think there are better places to put your money this month (watch for the customary October drops).
Regards,
USMA95 |
