>>1. Up on Monday -
If the market, and especially the NDX, rises on Monday then a few bullish signals will ignite
- The SPX will finally rise from 1280 and the support will hold once more
- The pennant on the NDX will be nulled
- The ST MAs will start moving higher and will make the action since 9/24 look like bottoming action.
- My opinion is that Monday will be down, and if it is up then my assumptions were wrong and therefore I should switch at least my ST view.
2. Overcoming resistance lines -
If Monday is up then there are two flat resistance levels that coincide with other technical lines and make TA focal points. First resistance is at SPX 1304 and the second and stronger one is at SPX 1318. So if Moday is up my immediate target is 1304 on Tuesday, and if that one is taken then the 1316-1318 level should bring solid resistance.
If the SPX takes out 1318 as well (and the NDX overtakes 2480) then I will have to accept a more bullish view, maybe even calling for a new high. <end quote>
Well, the SPX closed 1304.6 Monday, and passed the 1304 weak resistance easily on Tuesday open. Then it went on to attack the firmer 1316-1318 resistance and was crazy enough to attempt it just before the announcement, when it touched its high at 1316.43 two minutes before the fed announced.
The strong pullback from the resistance validates and strengthens it, and its 5 waves composition implies more downside before trying to attack the resistance again.
OTOH the strong end of day rally kept the close over the 13 dMA for a second day, and that is positive. Also positive is the overlap on 9/1. A trade higher then yesterday's high will make the move from 9/28 an impulse and will suggest further advances in the medium term.
A close over 1318 will also make the entire move from the July high look more like a completed correction, and will suggest buying the next weakness. It can also be the beginning of a failure on the big H&S that would be bullish longer term.
Looking at the ST downside, SPX 1280 should bring support, but a close under 1280 will strongly suggest the big move to 1140 and under.
ATG |
