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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Sommers who wrote (7673)	10/6/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Sommers, << As the GSM and TDMA carriers become overloaded with voice demand crowding out the data demand, they will be driven to decide between losing marketshare/customers or fully implement the painful conversion to CDMA 2000 >> I respectfully submit that consideration of a "conversion to CDMA 2000" (or cdmaOne) is not a likely consideration for GSM carriers. With 3 years experience with the Mobile Data Initiative under their belt, they have carefully plotted their 2.5G migration path and are embarked on it. A quote and link on the subject are below: "Yankee Group research shows that over the next few years the emphasis will be on GPRS as an enhancement to the current GSM system. "We expect the NGD basic infrastructure market to be worth around $2billion over the next three years, with over 95% of this figure spend on GPRS and the remainder on HSCSD," says Maureen Coulter, Senior Analyst in the Yankee Group's Wireless Mobile Europe planning service." yankeegroup.com << Mr. Armstrong's engineers can't actually believe they can hold on to their customer base in the face of limited data capability and crowded voice capacity >> Recognizing this, 'T' has taken an even bolder move by electing to fully commit to an implementation of EDGE, bypassing GPRS altogether. My investments in Q are not based on the likelihood that GSM or TDMA carriers will elect to migrate to cdmaOne cdma2000. Switching costs (RM pages 41 and 42) which go well beyond infrastructure and terminals are just to darned high, IMO. << Q has massive upside >> To be sure. I remain long on Q, but for other reasons than you state. - Eric -

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