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To: Ken98 who wrote (66870)	10/6/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) of 86076

<<What data are likely to trigger a November 16 tightening? An increase in the "super-core" rate of inflation - that is, an increase in the wholesale/consumer inflation rate excluding food, energy and tobacco prices - could be the trigger. If the shelter component of the CPI ever starts to build, this is a distinct possibility. Today's FOMC announcement called attention to the "decreasing pool of available day traders willing to take jobs." So, we will want to keep an eye on what is happening to the "expanded" unemployment rate, that is, the unemployment rate that includes folks who are not included in the official labor force - so-called discouraged workers and those who would take a job if offered to them, but for some reason have not looked for any of those jobs recently. Costs increasing significantly is excess of productivity was another risk highlighted in today's FOMC announcement. We will get information on this on November 12, when the preliminary Q3 productivity report is issued. As I indicated at the outset, I believe that these forthcoming data will support a November 16 tightening. >> ntrs.com

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