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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Rande Is who wrote (13183)	10/6/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (1) of 57584

IMHO Not quite sure what you find so convincing. This looks like more wash and rinse to me. The wash and rinse has moved to a bullish bias for now after a little correction. Just a technical bounce if you ask me. Might bring us back up some going into earnings, but I am not so confident about earnings season. I think we will see these gains reversed very quickly. Sure earnings are going to be good. There might be some disappointments on interest sensitive issues due to higher rates throughout this last quarter, but mostly they will be impressive. And these earnings will get the attention now that we are through the fed meeting just as they did in early July. But when those conference calls are made, the CEO's and CFO's are going to be looking out at next quarter, a quarter that ends on 12/31/1999!!! Who can paint a rosy picture with Y2K on the front burner? So much uncertainty and this uncertainty will be played out in those conference calls. Who can say how the consumer is going to react? I would guess that there will be a steady erosion of consumer confidence, peaking in Late Novemeber, just when the consumer should be getting excited about shopping. Look at the travel industry. They expected a banner year due to Y2K travel and now they are left holding the bag. Why should other retailers be different? Once those earnings reports are out, then all we have to think about is Y2K.... Also, there are so many alternatives to the US equities market now. Commodities are up. Foreign markets are up and the dollar is down. Bonds are staying steady at good returns. With all of this uncertainty a safe 7 or 8% might look attractive to some for a while. There is so much more competition for the investment dollar now. I am selling this rally and going to cash. Maybe I am going to miss a rally here, but I am having trouble sleeping at night with my money on the table...

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