Heinz,
You haven't read my previous post carefully enough it seems ... that tightening of credit spreads have absolutely nothing to do with market efficiency. So, while LTCM was indeed betting on tightening of credit spreads, that says nothing about whether or not they were betting on return of market efficiency. In fact, anyone betting on one market direction or other in the short term is implicitly assuming that the market is inefficient.
I don't know about "people", but if I take some 85% haircut from my present net worth, my average annual return over the past six years will be the same as that of risk free treasuries, adjusted for inflation. So, I will be OK with a mere 50% haircut (it has happened to me in the past when my play portfolio grew too large).
Finally, I believe that calling market tops (or bottoms) is, ahem, rather spectacularly foolish.
-BGR. |
