All, here is the real FUD worth to discuss: what will be the
Chipzilla action. We already heard on several occasions
that CuMines are "VERY cheap to produce" with clear
threat to drop prices across the whole high-end
line and continue to bleed AMD.
What do you think?
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by: busigia 70243 of 70243
Why? fear of the gorilla
The gorilla can go wild, and like Peck suggested, squash AMD like a bug. They can drop their pants and price the P3 so low for the next few months that the profitability for AMD will disappear, and so will the company.
At the forum this week, Rise felt so much fear after sitting through Intel and AMD seminars, that they quietly left, without presenting as they'd planned, with a yellow pool of liquid around the chair where they sat. They saw the P3 core getting loaded into the Celery chip, and discovered that the low end market was going to leave them behind at the station.
The K6 line may have to be abandoned, if it can't be juiced up significantly, and quickly.
The Athlon's profitability is predicated on Intel not dropping their pants. Unfortunately, on the low end, where they have had competition, Intel has always dropped their pants.
The fear is that Intel will be consistent in their denial or profitability to their competitors... even if it hurts them in the short term. Intel pockets are deep enough to sustain a year of pain.
It is this real possibility that intel may be willing to take a few lumps, and not shy away from a scrap at the top end that has investors quaking.
For Intel stockholders, It would be a better situation if they reigned in intel, and allowed the profits of both companies to grow at the top. Any shareholder return marginalized would be paid back in spades if they diversified their investment portfolio and bought a few cheap and undervalued AMD shares.
But Intel's mentality may be monopolistic (or oligarchic) not wishing to share the dias with anyone at the top.
Time will tell. But if Intel hits back hard, AMD could turn out to be a terrific opportunity for Siemens or Fujitsu, or...
For these reasons, I don't expect wonders between today, and the first profitable quarter, nor do I expect the stock to fall too far either.
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