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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (7803)10/7/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
<<I know you've had some very positive experiences in [timing] lately>>

I wish! the only good timing move I made was to pester a buddy into putting me on his IPO's "friends and family" list! Otherwise I'm a great contrarian indicator: my biggest single move into the market this year was on July 16... :(

<<but I contend it can't be done with any degree of reliability over time....I might suggest that you would do better to focus on technical analysis as opposed to Gorilla hunting methodology>>

Um, I realize that I'm going to get a ton of flaming for this, but just what evidence is there that TA produces good results "with any degree of reliability over time"? :)

But on to specifics: a practical timing question I invite replies on from any perspective. Last quarter I unthinkingly bought in just before earnings results, and got hammered (thanks all!) when people "sold on the news." This quarter's results are coming up soon, and there certainly seems to be a lot of "buying on the rumor." Given a fixed pool of cash, should one invest tomorrow or wait a few weeks, trying to take advantage of either a general market dip or a post-earnings sell-off dip? (I have in mind companies like SEBL, JDSU, ARMHY, etc. QCOM and GMST get their share as soon as the cash appears in the account!)

thanks for any suggestions,

tekboy@timingvictim.com

PS I find Eric J.'s psychological argument against timing--that in practice you will find it extraordinarily difficult to do what your mind tells you to do--the most persuasive one so far. I guess I was hoping that if, say, all of you wise folks agreed on a particular timing move then that would overcome my own timidity and self-doubts...
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