Ausdauer, I have been an occasional lurker on this thread for a while, having first encountered you and SNDK on the G&K thread. (I had a small position in SNDK which I have increased recently on the drop in the share price.) I would like to thank you for your many informative posts.
A couple of items that may be of interest to this thread follow:
The 10/4/99 issue of Inter@ctive Week contained a short article "Zooming In On Digital Cameras" which said, in part "Today, most digital camera vendors have adopted one of two types of flash memory: CompactFlash, developed by SanDisk; or SmartMedia, developed by Toshiba America." It notes that a report by International Data Corporation (IDC), showed SmartMedia having a slight lead in terms of installed slots and card shipments, and that it enjoyed a significant price advantage (adding "less than $15 to the price of a digital camera, vs. $51 for CompactFlash"). However, the article stated that the smaller capacity of SmartMedia (32mb) was a drawback that may allow CompactFlash (128mb) to overtake it in unit sales by year-end 2000, particularly as high-quality, high-resolution cameras begin to ship in volume. "Indeed, analysts say more camera makers are starting to support CompactFlash."
After reading the article I checked IDC's web site and found this:
idc.com
With Help from Digital Cameras, Flash Card Revenues Will Exceed $474
Million in 1999
Flash Card Format Battle to Intensify
October 4, 1999 - Buoyed by increasing popularity of digital cameras, shipments of flash cards are expected to surpass 12 million in 1999, almost twice as much as in 1998. Revenues will also buck the downward trend of the overall memory market and pass $474 million, according to International Data Corporation (IC). Other fast-emerging markets such as smart phones and digital music have the potential to drive flash card applications even further.
"The growth of flash card shipments affirms the medium as an important mass-storage option," said Xavier Pucel, manager of IC's semiconductor research program. "The increasing popularity of digital cameras continues to be the key driving force of the flash card market,
but digital music players are on the verge of becoming a major growth factor as well."
Currently, the most popular formats for flash cards are SmartMedia and CompactFlash cards, which together will account for almost 90% of flash card shipments in 1999 due to their use in digital cameras.
"As demand for higher capacity and smaller form factor increases, both of these formats will come under attack from competing formats," Pucel said.
IC expects shipments for CompactFlash to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% through 2003; SmartMedia's CAGR will be only 39%. The real story, however, will be the 162% CAGR for other small form factors.
During 1999 and 2000, IC expects total megabytes shipped per card to grow considerably. "Increasing resolution in digital cameras and growing popularity of digital music players will create a need for more capacity," Pucel said. "This growth, combined with stabilizing flash
device prices, will help fuel revenues to new heights."
Competition in the market is currently limited. The top four vendors -- Toshiba, SanDisk, Samsung, and Hitachi -- shipped more than 80% of all units in 1998. However, as the market gains recognition, competition will heighten as smaller companies try to jump in on the opportunity.
IC recently published 1999 Worldwide Flash Memory Card Market Review and Forecast: Toshiba Leads in Shipments, but the Format Battle Is Far from Over (IC #W20296). This report examines which format will prevail in the flash card market. It includes shipment,
revenue, and average selling price forecasts through 2003, segmented by form factor. The report also analyzes the different applications for flash memory cards. It thoroughly reviews the 1998 market, looking at flash card shipments by application, and takes a detailed look at CompactFlash and SmartMedia shipments. For more information or to order a copy of the report, please contact Sally Donovan at 1-800-343-4952 or at sdonovan@idc.com.
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