Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 101.61

+2.8%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: John Stichnoth who wrote (31765)	10/7/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: grok	Read Replies (6) of 93625

RE: <TST--Whether DRDRAM shows marked improvement in its initial incarnation is really irrelevant to its value at this point. I have no problem with Tom's conclusions, nor with kz's reporting of them (aside from the ending aside), except that they don't seem to be complete. Of course that is what we'll see in the first generation. And, as has been reported in PC Magazine and elsewhere, it is next year's applications that will show the value of the new technology, not last year's. The whole point of DRDRAM is that it provides further migration and (from intel's point of view) leaves the bottleneck in the cpu. Best, JS > John, a lot of people believe that time is on Rambus' side and that they shouldn't be expected to look good now will look better in the future. The problem with that is that today the fastest Rambus chips with Intel's newest Chip set are being compared against last year's Sdram and Chip set. And not looking good. An apples-to-apples comparison would be to compare it to PC133 with a chip set with 133MHz FSB. And before those apps demanding bandwidth appear DDR200 and DDR266 will appear in full production and provide more bandwidth (or at least equal bandwidth to Rambus). Following that DDR-II going above 400 MHz will appear. All of this will occur in the not distant future as VIA perfects their chip set and other vendors come on stream. Actually right now is the best time for Rambus performance and it will get worse relative in the future. Within 6 months I predict that "Rambus performance penalty" will enter the language just like Rambus die size penalty has. At that point it will be obvious to everyone that for PCs Rambus has higher cost, lower performance, and lower reliability. Intel will have a very hard time facing up to their mistake but eventually it will happen.

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