Volume is picking up indeed, although not as high as it needs to be for a moonshot to the upper $20's that a lot of people are hoping for. Again, as I posted before, the comparisons to DBCC and IDTC serve as good example of what may happen to this stock. The key, IMO, is the volume being swapped around now.
DBCC - volume the week before the IPO was incredible, on some days over 34 million shares were traded. Keep in mind that DBCC and NAVR have about the same average volumes, both a couple of thousand shares less than 500k shares.
IDTC - average volume is much higher than NAVR's, about 2 million shares to 500k shares. However, there was not a significant increase in volume the week before. If I remember right, it was about 2-3 times the average on the "heavy days"; on other days it barely hit the average. This is akin to what NAVR is doing now. Some days with average volume (like last week and early this week) and other days (like today) with 2-3 times the average.
Given the fact that IDTC run up slightly, from a low or base of $18 to a high of $24 and change - or about a 33-40% run, I think we can expect the same thing for NAVR. The base looked like it was established at around $10; that's how I pulled out the figure of $14 for the IPO run.
The good news, however, is that NAVR probably won't tank as bad as DBCC (from $50 to $20 post IPO - 60%) on IPO day. NAVR will probably do a IDTC type downing, from $24 to a low of $13 and change). That may sound bad, but keep in mind that the IDTC slide took about 8 trading sessions, so any longs that held for that extended drowning deserves no sympathy.
My estimates still remain $14 pre-IPO and a drop to $8-9 post IPO, but will probably take 3-5 trading days. Of course, Zurdo, this may change if NAVR has a 34 million share day tomorrow or next week.
Regards,
USMA95 |
