Grab bag response to UF, DS, SH, and Pala + SL
DownSouth says that "I'll bet the wise ones will say that agreeing on a 'timing move' for a Gorilla stock is as simple as 'buy on pullbacks.'" Well, yes, I agree that this is the basic rule, assuming that one has the cojones to keep the faith during those pullbacks. But--to buy on pullbacks you have to have cash on hand (or else liquidate other investments under duress). So the question becomes, "should one keep some cash on hand in order to be able to buy gorillas on pullbacks?" The upside is that by doing so you might get in at a lower price, which as I've noted is in fact very important in the long run. The downside, as Uncle Frank says, is the opportunity cost of not putting your money to work in the meantime--plus the chance that the next pullback might stop much higher than the current price.
I'll stop belaboring this point, because there seems to be a clear consensus that accurate timing isn't possible, and my own experience would certainly bear that out. But let's just keep in mind that this is an unfortunate necessity of life, not a good or even a neutral thing. So if somebody sees what strikes them as a particularly good buying opportunity in one of the stocks we all follow, I think they should post it--or at least PM me! <g>
StockHawk brings up SNDK at an opportune time, because I was just thinking about it on the train tonight. (Dumb stockpicking method follows, probably best ignored.) Reading Wired, I couldn't help noticing that the greatest number of ads was for cellular phones, which made me very happy. But the second greatest number of ads was for digital cameras. I thought, is this a leading indicator of the kind of market that Ausdauer was talking about? As SH points out, SNDK is in what appears to be an unjustified dip, so I might just hop in. Any SNDK holders (bullish or bearish) care to comment?
Finally, to Pala who worried about my wife's funds, some reassurances. First, she has far more in her account--which is practically all index funds--than I do in mine, so she's not in great danger. Second, she wants that animal shelter that Frank so perceptively suggested, and so--like StraightLife's better side--she was eager for greater returns. Third, try as I might I couldn't get her to shed her Ericsson holding, so if her account stumbles it's her own fault! (She's currently writing her second book on Swedish social democracy, and thus considers the very thought of selling her ERICY a near-treasonous act--even after I told her how they behaved toward the Q!)
tekboy@goodnight.com |
