Dennis,
Frankly, I tend to agree with your position that money can still be made if one is nimble and can identify the right sector/stocks. And that goes in both directions. Such is due to SECTOR ROTATION.
The most recent example of SECTOR ROTATION is the SOX index which got hit hard while the NAZ was flat and the DOT was up. The SOX has just produced LOWER LOWs so it is now in a short-term downtrend, at least for now.
I feel that it is too dangerous to try and pick the top of a sector which is hot, but just want to advise that the DOT.X has a SHOOTING STAR. If it gaps down today at the open and closes negative, it will become an ABANDONED BABY which is a 3-DAY CANDLESTIC REVERSAL signal and a strong one. So that should be watched at the open. Im not predicting for the DOT, just making a CANDLESTICK comment.
As for predicting a CRASH, I put that in the same category of an UP-CRASH, where both have been wrong since MARCH. We mainly here discussions of a CRASH or UP-CRASH, but what happened to range trading or a slow grinding mercilous move to either the upside or downside.
Im not saying that a CRASH or UP-CRASH is impossible, just that there are other possibilities which are seldom discussed.
Right now, I have a new hedged position biased to the downside. In other words I only hedged half of my shorts or double hedged my longs which ever way one wants to look at it. ggggggggg
As for calling an important bottom, I will keep it simple and just say that until the SPX surpasses the 62% FIBINOCCI level or if we triangulate/flaten out, I will stay with the position of a LOWER LOWs/LOWER HIGHs(MID-TERM DOWNTREND) with SECTOR ROTATION where some indicies could still set new highs.
seeya |
