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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: Susan Saline who wrote (20959)	10/8/1999 7:42:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) of 53068

KSWS a few comments on this falling knife many/most of these have not bounced back plus we have tax selling season so why am I buying it? read the recent news; basically they said this quarter would beat estimates .70-.80 vs ests of .65 but forward bookings basically suck right now my take: -98 earnings were 1.11 TTM from Q3'99 are 2.81 so say we look for only 2.00 going forward at $17 this is a P/E of under 9x's balance sheet is strong, no long term debt cash on 6/30 was $45.5mm shares out are 8,276,000 insiders etc own 65% so float is appox 2,897,000 at $17 price the company has enough cash to buy back 92% of the entire float looking at it another way it has cash to cover 1/3 of the entire market cap so with $5.50 a share in cash; we get a net stock price of: 17.00-5.50=11.50 thus a P/E of 5 with earnings of 2 bucks I started to leg in to a core position at $18 adding as it falls plus have been flipping the last 3 days to scalp a gain which in essence lowers my average cost I'm planning to hold a ton of this till Y2K ( I think) ggggg the volume was huge Tue lower Wed and still lower Thur I'm betting most holders have "puked out" most of what they want to and the selling is close to done a couple of times each day there has been a fast big drop (1/4-1/2 a point) when a big seller hit the ask those were the drops to buy on any way, you all know I don't recommend stocks but, this one is worth a look for a fast flip or a 1-3 month hold my targets: 18-20-22-25 over various time frames worst case down side looks like 12 at that price I'd sell my fishing rods and skis to load up the truck

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