dawn.com
08 October 1999 Friday 27 Jamadi-us-Saani 1420
Indian elections - more of the same
DIPY, It looks as if this editorial was written by U.
Indian elections - more of the same
INDIA'S elections, the third in three years, have produced results which are not
markedly different from those of the previous two electoral exercises. No single political
party has won a clear majority. Which means that coalition politics is there to stay in
India for some more time to come. But the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, with
at least 290 seats (it is projected to win), will at least be saved the agony of manoeuvring
and bargaining in the initial stages to get into power. That is, perhaps, all that the BJP can
be happy about. The slim majority the alliance enjoys makes the Hindu nationalist party
precariously dependent on the whims and fancies of its coalition partners. Given their
previous record, the BJP's allies can hardly be expected not to repeat their earlier act of
pulling the rug from under the feet of the senior partner on the slightest pretext. In fact,
observers of the Indian scene are already speaking of a new election in the next two or
so years.
Indications were available for some time that the polls would not bring any significant
gain for either the Congress or the BJP. But the slide in the BJP's own electoral standing
has been a bit unexpected. The party could not even retain all the seats it previously held.
Had it not been for the personal popularity of Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, the party's
showing would have been even more dismal. It might be poor consolation for the BJP
that the Congress (I) has fared no better. While its strength in the Lok Sabha will decline,
its allies have also failed to improve their lot. The gain has been that of the regional
parties which have been playing an increasingly important role in Indian politics.
It is plain that personalities rather than parties are determining the course of electoral
politics in India. For instance, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, who is leading the Congress Party, won
convincingly from the two constituencies from which she contested. Both of these,
Bellary and Amethi, were safe strongholds of the Congress (I) and it was the dynastic
and emotional factor which must have helped her considerably. But the overall failure of
the Congress (I) underlines her inability to revive the fortunes of the party which had
ruled India for nearly four decades before it was ousted from office. The disarray in the
party ranks, which has been torn by in-fighting among the leaders striving to gain control,
has undermined the organization. The regional parties, many of which are no more than
splinter groups, exert a strong pull in their own regions but have no national standing.
Hence their insignificant presence in the Lok Sabha. Even the two Communist parties
have been confined to some provinces only.
A significant trend to have emerged is the blind allegiance the voters show to the party of
their choice. They do not seem to be influenced very strongly by various events and
developments in national life. That is why Kargil or the dirty game of politics played by
some parties which led to the fall of the BJP thirteen months after it came to power did
not influence public opinion discernibly. This is not very healthy for democracy because it
tends to perpetuate the fragmentation which has emerged as a bane of Indian politics.
Apparently, the country's political system and party leaders have not matured enough to
handle the intricacies of coalition politics. Hence the instability, which has been India's
fate ever since the power of the Congress (I) waned in the late eighties. So far, the only
positive aspect of Indian political life has been that it has not disrupted the national
economy as one would have expected, given the polarization between the parties. In fact,
the election results which brought the assurance of a continuity in government gave a
boost to the stock market with the share prices in the Bombay stock exchange soaring by
3.7 per cent on Thursday. But this stability is of a transient nature. No one can vouch for
the long-term stability of the country.
For India's neighbours the continuation of the BJP government in office, albeit with a
greater majority for the time being, means that the country's present foreign policy will
not be radically changed. What will be welcomed, especially in Pakistan, is that the
installation of an elected government in office means that the peace process in South
Asia, which had been put on hold by the caretaker government, can now be expected to
be resumed. One hopes that as soon as Mr Vajpayee is reinstated in office, he will
address his country's relations with Pakistan on an urgent basis.
|
