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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR
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To: southbound who wrote (23712)10/8/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: SLSUSMA  Read Replies (1) of 27722
 
Southbound, I'll post this bit even though it may be micro in nature.

My take is that MMs are probably involved somewhat in keeping the price down, but they aren't the main cause. Most of the trades you see are retail in the 500-1000 share range ($11k in capital doesn't kill anyone). If we are accusing MMs of cosmetic trades to keep the price down, it should be 100 share blocks now and then. No since in putting down 5-10 times the capital when you can achieve the same effect with less.

I think of the trades today and yesterday are from old hands to new hands. Basically, as the IPO date approaches, I think a lot of old hands are saying, "Hell with this IPO thing; I realize what a unwise gamble I made in NAVR and I'd rather leave with a small profit or loss." As the dates get closer, people who are showing a little profit don't want get caught in the coming downdraft. From Top Gun, "Better to bug out and save your aircraft than push a bad position."

So I guess the effect is a double edged sword. If the old hands got shaken out, then at least these new people who bought in higher MAY hold a little longer (probably not) because they may still hope for a rally. But the flip side is that you will probably have day traders who will just cut losses and run at the first sign of weakness, which should start a cascade effect.

I'm think that it would be just fun to watch the side lines and see who's right. Learn from NAVRs backdoor IPO experience...there are a couple of more plays out there.

USMA95
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