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To: Real Man who wrote (67566)	10/8/1999 6:33:00 PM
From: Ken98	Read Replies (2) of 86076

Vi, a couple of thoughts on the real estate bubble this go around. First, the bodies just have not floated to the surface in the commercial market. There is a huge amount of office and retail construction that is just being completed or that will be completed in the next 3-6 months. Most of this construction was started a couple of years ago when prices and rents were rapidly rising and the REITS were buying everything in site. Well, rents are already declining and the REITS are walking dead. As the new construction comes on line now rents and occupancy rates will plummet. Rents are already down 10-15% this year alone and the bulk of the new construction is just beggining to be completed. But the biggest real estate bubble this time is the single-family residential market. This is where the most over-leveraging and speculation has occurred in this real estate cycle. Home prices have at least doubled in the last 3 years in many markets and consumers are buying much more than they can afford. But remember, we don't have any inflation... In short, the commercial bubble is nowhere near as bad as the 80s or in Japan. But the residential bubble is still out there.

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