<<but does look like the bottom is in>>
Famous last words. <g>
The charts still look miserable, at least in my opinion. The last few days did some very serious (and, to me, unexpected) damage. And even if we try to look at all those "hammers" on the candle charts as reversals, we didn't see the volume to indicate people have thrown in the towel. Moreover, the reversal pattern did not prevail throughout the sector. For each hammer, it isn't too hard to find a stock which closed near its low (VTS, VRC, CAM).
Best case, I think, is a scenario raised by Gary today, suggesting a (3 wave) bounce, retracing maybe to the mid-high 70's, followed by another wave down to these levels. OK, that is a trading opportunity for some, although it is dead money for long term investors for what I would estimate to be pretty much the rest of this year.
What worries me more is the possibility that these stocks (or at least some of them) are now indicating bearish trends, not simply corrections. Prior to the last couple of days, I would not have considered a scenario where the OSX could see new lows (i.e., 40's or worse). Now, though, I can't totally dismiss it. But I suppose if there were no risk, everyone would be rich.
I noticed something funny, though. The charts that seem best positioned for a turn soon are the really beaten down issues like GLBL and FGI. |
