MG, Re: Financial Turmoil in the Swamp
First, I understand and relate to your expressed concerns on the DRG sector. When reviewed on a monthly basis, ir is clear that the sector can go into hibernation for years. However, it is equally difficult for me to comprehend that WLA just broke a 15 month down trend line.
Second, as to IBM, we will see in about a week. However, the last time the Anal-ysts pulled this warning garbage, the stock exploded after the earnings report (it was also a 50% retracement). I've watched this puppy and it has been interesting to see how it continues to honor the 50% number.
As to the financials -- A sad story in reality -- so much for the Efficient Market Theory. The pretty up trend line on the monthly chart of C was obliterated in 8/98. It operated as resistance in 4/99, and failed! It now wanders without support. That said, it appears to be in a $42 by $50 trading range, and given the resources, one should take advantage of the opportunity.
While the above has been discussed as below the monthly up trend channel, AXP is actually above the channel. If I had the resources available, I'd bet it will not last. Gravity does eventually take over! FWIW from the swamp, let me suggest a possible straddle -- long JPM; short AXP.
I'll sidestep AIG for now, and other insurance companies. However, my FA says ALL is the candidate of choice.
As to the brokerage types, MWD reflects that the monthly chart is again in control. The UTL is about $94.50 and the lower one is, way down there, at $72. Boy, the HR at $98 really proved significant. However, the move from $84 to $98 seems to happen in quick order. This puppy really seems to follow OEX in the short-term.
Just a Simplistic View from the Swamp
TB |
