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Technology Stocks : PTC
PTC 176.59+0.1%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (2614)10/9/1999 5:49:00 AM
From: William B. Kohn  Read Replies (4) of 3646
 
Ram you are preposterous.
To claim that PMTC is directly responsible in any measure for the labor departments numbers proves that you are way more off base to the bullish side than I am too the bearish side.

I make any of my statements regarding the CAD/CAM industry by the following principal.

1. Only UGS and DASTY are showing any CAD/CAM growth to speak of now. All the other companies are seeing real year to year revenue declines in this the major portion of their business. That is, I believe a fact, verified by analysis of 10K's.

2. Of the major CAD/CAM players to date only SDRC has shown major signifiant revenues with major customers in PDM space. At this juncture, UGS and DASTY are in a distant second tier to SDRC, with PMTC way behind.

3. Windchill suffers from being too much a PMTC product and I have yet to see a major Windchill win not directly tied to Pro/ENGINEER customers. When Windchill wins at a major UG, CATIA, SDRC, or even Autocad account I will revise my judgement.

4. The fact that PMTC is so scared of their competition that they are encripting their CAD data so that others cannot use it with their PDM solutions, and are investing massive R&D dollars to make their database more difficult for customers to transfer from also speaks to be of a company who is spending too much time trying to relive the past and does not as yet have a vision for the future.

At this juncture I can see no realistic reason, even given the press releases of the last few days that PMTC deserves a higher share price than SDRC. I stand by my comments that PMTC is overvalued and that it will ultimately become a sub-ten dollar issue.

In six months the story may change as RAM suggests and PMTC would at that time may become an attractive issue to own. I can only state that my view is today the risk is not worth the reward.
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